"Constitutional Amendment No. 3 creates substantial uncertainty regarding the future funding of fire protection, emergency medical services, and disaster response without identifying a sustainable replacement revenue source."
In Florida, local governments like schools, counties, municipalities, and special districts collect property taxes that fund critical public services. Amendment 3 puts these funds at risk. Below you can look at cuts to counties, municipalities, or special districts. Keep in mind, the impact will likely be greater as funding for some services falls within multiple categories.
-$346,842,800
-$624,282,900
-$971,125,700
County and Municipal Operations |
FY-2028FY-27 | FY-2029FY-28 | Over 2 Years*2-Yrs* |
|---|---|---|---|
|
County Operating |
-$250,277,000-$250.3M | -$448,556,100-$448.6M | -$698,833,100-$698.8M |
| County Operating | -$154,486,900-$154.5M | -$277,763,700-$277.8M | -$432,250,600-$432.3M |
| Unincorporated Area Services | -$95,790,100-$95.8M | -$170,792,400-$170.8M | -$266,582,500-$266.6M |
|
Municipality Operating |
-$46,564,900-$46.6M | -$85,680,700-$85.7M | -$132,245,600-$132.2M |
Special Districts |
FY-2028FY-27 | FY-2029FY-28 | Over 2 Years*2-Yrs* |
|
Roads & Transportation |
-$15,869,700-$15.9M | -$28,575,600-$28.6M | -$44,445,300-$44.4M |
| Hillsborough County Transit Authority | -$13,784,700-$13.8M | -$24,826,800-$24.8M | -$38,611,500-$38.6M |
| Tampa Port Authority | -$2,085,000-$2.1M | -$3,748,800-$3.7M | -$5,833,800-$5.8M |
|
Tampa-Hillsborough County Public Library |
-$15,131,000-$15.1M | -$27,285,200-$27.3M | -$42,416,200-$42.4M |
|
Children's Board Of Hillsborough County |
-$12,112,100-$12.1M | -$21,799,900-$21.8M | -$33,912,000-$33.9M |
|
Conservation & Water Management |
-$6,888,100-$6.9M | -$12,385,400-$12.4M | -$19,273,500-$19.3M |
| Southwest Florida Water Management District | -$5,179,700-$5.2M | -$9,312,900-$9.3M | -$14,492,600-$14.5M |
| Hillsborough County Conservation & Environmental Lands Management | -$1,708,400-$1.7M | -$3,072,500-$3.1M | -$4,780,900-$4.8M |
The state fiscal year starts July 1 and ends June 30. For this reason, a fiscal year overlaps with two calendar years. The next fiscal year begins July 1, 2027, and ends June 30, 2028.
Amounts are rounded to the nearest $100. Line items where the 'Over 2 Years' amount has an absolute value of less than $1000 are included in totals, but not shown individually. Items may not sum exactly to totals due to rounding and suppression of small line items.
* To maintain consistency with the official state estimation methodology for this potential mid-year policy change, these values do not include the significant impact for the second half of fiscal year 2027.
It is important to note that funding often overlaps across categories. Special districts have a narrow scope of services and can collect property taxes to fund their activities. Counties and municipalities also collect property taxes and can provide funding for these same services either through a special district or on their own. For example, some communities will have a special library district while others rely on a county or municipality to fund library services.
As another example, some Children’s Services and Trusts are funded by a county and not independently. While these programs would not appear as standalone special districts, they are folded into the county’s budget.
This analysis uses the final 2025 real property tax roll NAL files from the Florida Department of Revenue and 2025 millage rates from each county to estimate parcel level property tax bills and the resulting revenue loss for each taxing authority from the proposed amendment.
Under the proposed changes permanent residents as of 12/31/2026 would have their second homestead exemption that applies to non-school assessed value increased to $150,000 in 2027, $250,000 in 2028, and indexed to inflation by CPI for 2029 and later. New permanent residents after 12/31/2026 would only be eligible for a smaller exemption of $50,000 for the first five years. Additionally, the proposal would reduce the limit on the growth of the non-school assessed value for non-homestead parcels from 10% to 5%.
For these estimates we use the 2025 homestead exemption status as a proxy for homestead eligibility under the proposal. We recalculate non-school taxable value for each year replacing the second homestead exemption by the applicable exemption amount under Amendment 3. We then determine the complete set of millage rates for each parcel, by matching on the Taxing Authority Code – a unique identifier for the overlapping set of authorities whose jurisdiction includes the parcel – with the 2025 millage rates from each county. From this, we multiply the non-school taxable value by the applicable non-school millage rates to estimate annual property tax bills under the proposal and compare them with current law to determine loss in revenue for each taxing jurisdiction.
Annual values are all adjusted to account for countywide assessed value growth projections from the Ad Valorem Estimating Conference and to incorporate several assumptions from the official Florida Revenue Estimating Conference analysis. These proportional countywide adjustments are designed to include the state’s estimated revenue impact of reducing the assessment cap for non-homestead properties from 10% to 5%, and in-migration of new permanent residents.
Minor adjustments were made to the Hospitals and Children's Services Councils & Trusts categories to incorporate prior additional analytical work in these categories by Florida Policy Institute.
For more information on the underlying assumptions of the Revenue Estimating Conference analysis see https://edr.state.fl.us/Content/conferences/revenueimpact/archives/2026F/_pdf/page682-699.pdf
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